Border Wars (The Latino / Hispanic Vote)

by conservative commentator Richard Nadler reveal an analysis of Hispanic voting patterns in "Border Wars: The Impact of Immigration on the Latino Vote" which was released by conservative  Americas Majority Foundation,

It shows  the effect on candidates in districts with an "enforcement only" policy, a somewhat neutral policy, and a pro-undocumented policy toward immigration especially in districts with high percentages of Hispanic voters.

He warns that the Repubs are in danger of losing the 2008 elections in certain Red States, as well as the presidency, because of their anti "undocumented immigrant" agenda.

The Republicans believe, wrongly, that Hispanic voters don't care about their "undocumented" immigrant brethren. Almost all Hispanic in these areas have family, friends, neighbors, and members of their churches that are undocumented. Or their family, friends etc. have family, friends, etc. who are undocumented immigrants.

Fellow conservative Linda Chavez seems to reluctantly agree that there is a danger to treating the "undocumented" as they have been treated. There doesn't seem to be any concern by Nadler and Chavez about the mistreatment of the "undocumented". Just that it will hurt the Repubs chances in 2008 and beyond.

Nadler and Chavez agree that, unless the Repubs get their act together, Hispanic voters are poised to turn several red states blue come 2008, virtually guaranteeing a Democratic presidential victory and a pickup in congressional seats as well, according to a new analysis of Hispanic voting trends.

Richard Nadler study included congressional districts in the Arizona 5th and 8th, as well as the Texas 23rd. The percentage of votes in 2006 for "enforcement only" Republicans went way down, compared to 2004. It also showed the Repubs how they can be moderately anti immigrant and not alienate the Hispanic voters.  Rep. Pearce of New Mexico's 2nd, Rep. Heather Wilson in New Mexico's 1st district and especially "Strive Act" co-sponsor Rep. Jeff Flake in Arizona's 6th district saw Hispanic support came with their supporting comprehensive immigration reform.

The Democratic Candidates for President are taking the Hispanic vote seriously. And they know that the polls show that Hispanics are coming back to the Democrats for 2008.

The Republicans on the other hand, didn't have the cajones to debate for the Spanish speaking voters. They'll have another chance in December. I would love to see that (but they wouldn't dare).

I hope this study can be a lesson for Democrats as well. Don't underestimate the power of the "comprehensive immigration reform" voters. And don't take the immigrant vote for granted.

•  Tips, Propinas

  (tips in Spanish)

  by immigradvocate on Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 04:54:31 PM PDT

•  I live in AZ 08 and Hispanic voters' views

  on illegal immigration, are similar to the rest of the country.  We don't condemn the illegal immigrant, but we know that policies have to change.
  (A wall will do nothing and is impossible in parts of the desert, and Chertoff is crazy if he thinks a wall is environmentally sound.)

  You can't live in the Tucson Sector, where 1137 dead bodies have been found in the last 7 years, and not feel pain for people seeking a better life.

  The AZ Daily Star documented the return of Jesús Alberto Cabral López's bones, found in the Sonoran desert, to his village in Mexico.

  You can read this sad story here.

  by Desert Rose on Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 06:21:37 PM PDT

•  Dem Jim Kolbe ran on a pro-comprehensive reform

  in the 8th AZ against Republican Randy Graf who made illegal immigration the centerpiece of his campaign. In 2004, Rep. Kolbe won almost 43 percent of the vote in Hispanic precincts. In 2006, Graf won 18 percent of Hispanic precincts' votes and Republicans lost the election 54-42%.
  What do the non Hispanics in AZ 08 think about immigration reform?

  by immigradvocate on Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 06:39:34 PM PDT

  •  Most Non- Hispanics in AZ 08 comprenden

    the issue better than the rest of the country.  The '06 election here was about Iraq.  Graf is a right wing nut who could not carry the state.

    by Desert Rose on Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 07:04:28 PM PDT