Republican Gordon Smith is running the most negative campaign in the entire country. Smith has spent over one million dollars attacking OR-Sen candidate Jeff Merkley. You'd think I wouldn't be surprised anymore with the Smith's campaign constant negative attacks and misleading ads, but today the Smith campaign reached a new low. Jeff Merkley released his rural economic development plan and this is how the Smith Campaign responded:

Jeff Merkley has a 10-year record of trying to beat rural Oregon into submission," Gilbride said. "His lackluster and disingenuous proposal is merely fruit from a poisoned tree. It is not credible for Merkley to propose things he spent a career opposing."

Wow.

Full disclosure; I am the netroots director for OR-Sen candidate Jeff Merkley

Lots of news today.

NM-Sen: So far, everything has come up Milhouse for Tom Udall; he has substantial polling leads and a significant cash advantage over Republican Steve Pearce.

Get ready for a round of negative ads from Pearce...and, it seems, from shadowy Big Oil groups. NM FBIHOP reports:

The American Energy Alliance, a group with no website, no online FEC filings and no IRS filings, has started airing ads blasting Tom Udall for not wanting to drill anywhere and everywhere.

...

An excerpt: "The U.S. is sitting on top of vast untapped oil reserves, estimated at about 2 trillion barrels, enough oil to last us for 300 years."

This is complete bullshit.  Even Saudi Arabia doesn't have 2 trillion barrels; they have about a quarter of that in their reserves.

Who are these guys? They're the American Energy Association, a group with no real profile since 1996:

A September 13, 1996 Washington Post article described the group as "a coalition of the National Association of Manufacturers, American Petroleum Institute and Edison Electric Institute."  Hmm... wonder what their agenda on wanting more drilling could possibly be.  

Steve Pearce can't afford to close the gap between himself and Udall. He hasn't the resources, nor the likability. So it will be left to third-party organizations, here and elsewhere, to do the Republicans' jobs for them.

NC-Sen: DSCC chair Chuck Schumer loves Kay Hagan:

Schumer confirmed the DSCC has committed millions of dollars to advertising for Hagan and said the organization is setting up an "extensive" on-the-ground field network of staff on Hagan's behalf.

"That shows our commitment," Schumer said. He would not go into further details.

The Chairman was so bold as to say:

"Kay Hagan's on fire," Schumer said. "She's doing great. That's a seat we’re real strong in."

And even though North Carolina isn't a state in which Democrats are ahead, Schumer made a prediction about Hagan: "She's going to win," he said.

She very well might.

KS-Sen: Pat Roberts certainly seems to think he's in some danger; he's out with his fifth ad of the cycle.

This one is especially weak. It hits Democrat Jim Slattery for a weak attendance record in Congress in 1994, his last year...conveniently ignoring that Slattery was in Kansas running for Governor in 1994.

Nice one, Pat Roberts.  

Meanwhile, Slattery's latest ad hits the Republican incumbent Roberts on gas prices:

MN-Sen: A Rasmussen poll shows Al Franken and Norm Coleman deadlocked in Minnesota:  

Franken recently shook up his campaign staff, and has taken a harder edge against Coleman in recent ads. Coleman, for his part, has responded in kind with his latest ad, entitled "Crazy Porn", which alleges that Franken was responsible for, well, writing crazy porn.

Things are better for Franken then they were even a few weeks ago, but beating Norm Coleman is not going to be easy. It never was.

House Races

NH-02, NH-02: Take these polls with a boatload of salt, but here are the UNH polling numbers for New Hampshire's Congressional districts. In NH-01:

And in NH-02:

MissLaura has serious reservations about the partisan sampling used in UNH polls (they certainly missed the boat badly in polling these races in 2006). So take these polls for what they're worth, which is not a lot.

They do underscore two fundamental truths; Hodes is pretty safe, and Shea-Porter has work to do. That said, I think she'd win if the election were held today.

However, this is a very bad race about which to be complacent; Cook Political Report just moved the race to "Tossup" from "Leans Democratic", indicating the concern around Shea-Porter's reelection bid.

NC-10: Despite hanging in an R+15 district, everybody's favorite young wingnut, Republican Patty McHenry, is in fear for his political life.

Facing a remarkably talented opponent in Democrat Dan Johnson, McHenry was on the verge of trailing in fundraising for the second quarter. So rather than suffer this embarrassment, our man McHenry decided to loan his own campaign $170,000, for good-PR purposes.

I think it's safe to say he's feeling some electoral pressure from Johnson this year.

NM-02: Well, this is intriguing; both Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Ed Tinsley sacked their campaign managers.

This begs the question: who's winning?

Republican Ed Tinsley’s campaign already has a new manager. Chris Collins, who managed Heather Wilson’s unsuccessful primary bid for U.S. Senate, has taken over for Grant Hewitt, who is now deputy campaign manager. Meanwhile, Democrat Harry Teague has fired former campaign manager Brad Foster, who has not yet been replaced.

"We wish Brad well. He did a fine job on the campaign, but looking forward we had a difference of opinion about how to run the campaign," said Teague communications director Alex Cole.

Collins, meanwhile, pointed out that Hewitt is still on Tinsley’s staff and coordinating political activities.

"Grant did a terrific job managing the primary effort. Ed won by 10 points. Now we are shifting gears into the general," said Collins, who is also a former staffer for Sen. Pete Domenici. "... I came on board as an extra set of hands to help out with some of the management and organizational work. We have added several new staff in the last couple of weeks. Everybody is working hard to make sure Ed Tinsley is elected to Congress."

The district is about R+6, but Teague has been a surprisingly strong candidate so far. Hopefully he takes care of this staff shakeup shortly, and can pull off the upset in New Mexico's 2nd.

KS-04: Democratic candidate Donald Betts, a young State Senator looking to oust incumbent Todd Tiahrt in this Wichita-based district, liveblogged today at Future Majority.

NV-02, NV-03: Republican Dean Heller is running push-polls in Neavda against his Democratic opponent, Jill Derby.

I had the entertaining experience of listening in on a telephone poll this evening. It started out reasonably enough, asking the poll-taker's opinion of President Bush and whether he will vote for the Democrat or Republican in the congressional race. But the bias quickly became apparent.

The caller asked about U.S. Rep. Dean Heller's ability "to get things done" and his willingness to put constituents' interests over partisan politics. She asked if Heller is "one of us" sharing the same experiences, "worries and hope for the future."

Listing a number of positions, the caller asked if one was more or less likely to vote for Heller for his proven ability to work on a bipartisan basis, his support of English-only ballots, his fight against wasteful spending and his work to secure funding for DNA testing. My favorite: Heller "knows you can't haul supplies with a hybrid" and that "we need pick up trucks."

The pollster then switched her focus to Heller's Democratic opponent Jill Derby. According to the pollster, Derby is a career politician. She wasted $85,000 of taxpayer money on "worthless junkets" while on the Board of Regents (at one point the pollster said $85 million). She's bragged about national liberal groups funding her campaign. And she supports taxpayer funding of health care for illegal immigrants.

Yup, sounds awfully pushy to me.

Meanwhile, in the Third District, there's better news: The Cook Political Report has moved the race, pitting incumbent Rep. Jon Porter against State Sen. Dina Titus, from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up".

OH-16: This is a web ad from Democrat John Boccieri. I wish to hell this was on regular airwaves.

MI-07: Patriot Majority Midwest is running an ad hitting Republican Tim Walberg for being the only member of the House Education and Labor Committee to vote against reauthorizing Head Start.

Here's the ad:

Meanwhile, via press release, Democratic candidate Mark Schauer had a record fundraising quarter for a Democrat in the district.

BATTLE CREEK—Today State Senator Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) announced that his Congressional campaign raised more than $427,000 in the second quarter, which breaks the previous fundraising record he set earlier this year for the most money raised by a Democrat in the 7th district. Combined with the last quarter when he outraised his incumbent opponent, Schauer has now brought in more than $1.33 million and has more than $928,000 cash on hand.

Impressive.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/21-23. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/22 results)

Looks like float within the MoE. This one is tight. Note, there was a methodological difference in this poll from the last -- we omitted the party ID of the candidates since the ballot will omit them. Ultimately, it seemed to make little difference.

And check out the presidential:

Obama is getting 19 percent of the white vote in this poll, just shy of the 20 percent DavidNYC identified as key for winning the state. The second part of that equation is to boost African American turnout in the state to 40 percent of the total vote. In this poll, African Americans represent 37 percent of the vote. The undecided African American vote -- 15 percent (!) -- will come down for Obama. Now it's a question of turning them out in historic numbers.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

Race tracker wiki: MS-Sen

OK, we knew Republican Senate candidate Jim Gilmore was in serious electoral trouble, given that he trails by 20-30 points in every poll, and has about a tenth of the cash of his Democratic opponent Mark Warner. Now, it seems, he might be facing ethical questions as well.

Turns out Gilmore filed false information on his campaign disclosure forms, obscuring his ties to the Virginia-based company Windmill International. This is serious business, as Windmill International currently embroiled in a federal lawsuit as two of its board members, Douglas Combs and Hansford Johnson, stand accused of attempting to defraud the government.

Combs and Johnson are both heavy donors to Gilmore's political campaigns. Their company even launched the "Gilmore4President" web site, when Gilmore was waging his quixotic quest for the Republican nomination. Yet when a federal suit was filed against Windmill International, Gilmore found a slick method of maneuvering around the trouble; he claimed to have worked for a different company named Windmill International.

From the Washington Post:

On the [campaign disclosure] forms, the first filed in June 2007 for his presidential campaign and the second in May after he joined the U.S. Senate race, Gilmore said he was on the board of Windmill International.

Gilmore, who signed his name attesting that the information on the forms was "complete and correct," reported that Windmill International was based in Nashua, N.H.

But Gilmore was on the board of a Virginia-based company also called Windmill International. The two companies are not affiliated. The Virginia company, headed by Douglas Combs, a former Navy official, is at the center of an ongoing lawsuit alleging that Combs and others tried to secure fraudulent government contracts in Iraq.

The Gilmore campaign claims this was just a "clerical error". This would be easier to believe if Gilmore and his campaign had not seemingly gone out of their way to indicate that it was, in fact, the New Hampshire company for which he worked:

In 2005, Combs's company filed a report with the State Corporation Commission listing Gilmore as vice chairman of the company. SCC records do not list Gilmore after that.

But Gilmore's forms for his Senate campaign incorrectly say he was on the New Hampshire company's board from December 2004 to December 2007. The Web site of the Virginia company still lists Gilmore as a member of its "team."

Gamonal said she did not know why Gilmore's name was on the Virginia company's Web site. In the campaign's statement, Gilmore says he served on the Virginia company's board as an unpaid adviser from May 2005 to June 2006. Gilmore also reported that Windmill International is a "veterans contract group."

Richard L. Manganello, founder and chief executive officer of the New Hampshire company, which describes itself as a contracting firm run by veterans, said neither he nor his business has had any ties to Gilmore or Combs's company, which is based at Combs's home in Rappahannock County.

While the New Hampshire group is indeed a "veterans' contracting group", the Virginia company does not deal in veterans' issues.

So, to recap: Gilmore claimed to have worked for a veterans' contracting group, based in New Hampshire, from 2004 to 2007, on his campaign disclosure forms.

He is now admitting that none of those things were true.

Falsifying one's campaign disclosure forms is a relatively serious offense, and Gilmore may face a fine.

But more to the point: what exactly was the nature of Gilmore's relationship to Combs and Johnson, and Windmill International? What was so dangerous about that relationship that it was worth breaking federal law to conceal?

Gilmore was not named in the federal lawsuit, but as this story breaks, there will be many more questions as to how deep Gilmore's involvement with Windmill goes.

Race tracker wiki: VA-Sen

The Slattery for Senate campaign is up with another spot on T.V.  "Young" began airing this week as well across Kansas and its a lot of fun with the flipping cube.

The Washington Post has a new story up about the Republican candidate for senator from Virgina. It doesn't look good for what was already a long-shot. (Both candidates are past Governeors; Warner, the Democrat, is intensely popular; Gilmore, the Republican, is not.)
Apparently, Gilmore was on the board of a Virginia company which was being investigated by the Pentagon for fraud. (And what it takes for a politically-connected firm to be investigated for fraud by this administration beggars the imagination.) Gilmore filed campaign-disclosure statements listing him as on the board of a different corporation with the same name inco0rporated in a differnet state. Now, mistakenly saying your firm is incorporated in your state is a plausible blunder; saying that the company on whose board you serve is incorporated inan entirely different state stretches the suspension of disbelief.

Yesterday Chris Dodd held a hearing (part 2 of 2) on childhood obesity in the Senate. I was so happy with his first hearing that I gave him ten bucks. There will not be any ten bucks for this second hearing. He included testimony from the American Beverage Association. WTF!

I got a hold of their testimony from the website and it calls for an edible version of the Scotty Show.

So how do we do this? The American Beverage Association's bullshit is thick and bold like in real life, my words are in regular font. Actually - you know what - I'm just going to delete the stuff that's not relevant and give you your bullshit straight up. Karateexplosions, I promise to give you royalties, so long as you accept mojo from my tip jar.

Two years ago I published a bunch of diaries on Senate races, with elaborate graphs.  

They're BAAAAACK!

Method:
 1.  I gathered polling data from Pollster.com.  I only included polls in 2008.
 2.  I assigned the undecided in two ways: 75% to the challenger (per general practice) and 50-50.  The first method is represented by solid boxes.  The latter method by hollow dots.
 3.  I then added loess lines to all 4 series of boxes: Solid lines for the solid boxes, dotted lines for the hollow dots.  Good descriptions of loess (aka local regression) are here  (technical notes on local regression)

Some notes:
 1.   For any poll and for either method, the percentages add to 100.  
 2.  If the hollow box is far from the solid box, then there are a lot of undecideds.

CO-Sen: After a series of polls showing Democrat Mark Udall with a 9-10 point lead over Republican Bob Schaffer, here's the first one in a while showing a closer race. From Rasmussen:  

Udall isn't likely to win by 12-15 points, or anything like that. Despite myriad missteps and scandals from Schaffer, and despite a solid campaign for Udall so far, this race is far from over. Nevertheless, the edge is Udall's, and has been since the race began.

NC-Sen: Elizabeth Dole's rather shocking attempt to get the high-profile AIDS relief bill named after her predecessor, the late Sen. Jesse Helms, has gone up in smoke.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., introduced an amendment to add Helms, the N.C. Republican who died July 4, to the title of a $48billion bill passed Wednesday in the Senate that triples spending for a much-acclaimed program that has treated and protected millions in Africa and elsewhere from the scourges of AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis.

Her measure, though, didn't get a vote. The legislation was already named after two other lawmakers who fought against the spread of AIDS, former Reps. Henry Hyde, R-Ill., and Tom Lantos, D-Calif.

Dole's amendment came as a surprise, of course, because Helms spent a good bit of his life attacking AIDS victims:

Helms changed his view on foreign relief programs late in his Senate career, and teamed up with rock star Bono to help suffering populations overseas.

What many critics won't soon forget are Helms' comments like this one about people with AIDS in his own country: "There is not one single case of AIDS in this country that cannot be traced in origin to sodomy."

This, too:

Dole's amendment, quietly introduced Monday, was first reported Wednesday by the Huffington Post. The news quickly spread on the blogosphere, where there was a proliferation of Helms quotes – such as 1995 comments to The New York Times, which quoted him as saying people got AIDS because of "deliberate, disgusting, revolting conduct."

Dole's legislative career in the Senate has been underwhelming by any analysis. And if a failed amendment to get an AIDS relief bill named after the most controversial politician in North Carolina's recent history is her best attempt at padding her resume, it may be time to consider someone else.

NH-Sen: Plenty of movement in the Jeanne Shaheen - John Sununu race. Two polls out, both from pollsters of questionable reliability. From ARG:

Too good to be true, right? So witness UNH:

Too bad to be true? It is. MissLaura has a healthy dose of skepticism about the partisan samples used in the UNH polling, which she articulates at Blue Hampshire. The UNH poll, FWIW, showed Paul Hodes losing by 20-25 points, in late 2006.  

Gazing at these polls, CQ Politics shakes their head, shrugs their shoulders, and moves the race to "Leans Democratic".

MS-Sen: For a race widely considered a tossup, or leaning ever so slightly Republican, Mississippi's Senate race has been relatively quiet. But Mississippi remains one of the closest Senate races in the country in polling, and Barack Obama's campaign apparently intends to seriously contest the state, expecting to increase the black vote in Mississippi by over 30%.

The Politico has an excellent article noting that even if this does not turn Mississippi to Obama, it could win the election for Musgrove.

It is possible for a Mississippi Democrat to win in a statewide election, but it would likely require 30 percent of the white vote along with nearly the entire black vote. In 2003, Musgrove lost his reelection bid for governor to current Gov. Haley Barbour, a Republican. Musgrave took about 22 percent of the white vote, and lost the election 53 percent to 46 percent. In 1999, when Musgrove beat Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Parker in one of the closest races in Mississippi history, he performed even better among white voters, running well ahead of typical Democratic performance in Northeast Mississippi, a Republican stronghold.

The formula that has sometimes worked for Mississippi Democrats is directly at odds with Obama’s strategy for putting Southern states in play. Obama and his aides have made the case that Obama could increase black turnout so substantially — by 30 percent or more — that Southern states with large African-American populations would become competitive even without much of a change in the white turnout. But the math here is much harder than the Obama campaign asserts. If you take the 2004 presidential election results, increase the black vote by 30 percent and assume that the white vote stays the same, Obama would still lose Mississippi by more than 100,000 votes. And most analysts think that a 30 percent increase in the black vote is extremely optimistic. Obama will surely draw African-Americans to the polls in record numbers, but even a 10 percent to 15 percent increase in African-American votes would be historic. Add to that Obama’s problems in attracting white Mississippi voters even in the Democratic primary, where he attracted only a quarter of white Democrats.

What Musgrove hopes is that he can have the best of both worlds. He can run as a more conservative Democrat picking up moderate white voters, just as Travis Childers did in the House special election to replace Roger Wicker. But Musgrove might also benefit from Obama energizing and turning out the black vote even while Musgrove keeps his distance from the presidential nominee.

Musgrove is running even in the polls with incumbent Republican Roger Wicker, so even a small increase in the black vote in Mississippi would be a tremendous boon to Musgrove's campaign.

House Races

AK-AL: Kos wrote last night on the burgeoning scandal surrounding Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Long story short, Palin apparently had a personal vendetta against a state trooper (and her former brother-in-law), Mike Wooten,who had been embroiled in a nasty divorce from Palin's sister. Over 25 investigations and complaints were filed against him in an attempt to get him fired. All were dismissed save one, which was deemed not serious enough to sack him.

Allegedly, Palin subsequently pressured public safety commissioner Walt Monegan to fire the brother-in-law. Monegan didn't, and was subsequently fired himself.

Finally, Monegan's replacement, Chuck Kopp, is highly controversial in his own right, having previously been charged with sexual harassment by an employee.

Palin is not up for reelection until 2010, but her lieutenant governor Sean Parnell represents the biggest threat to a Democratic pickup in the House race. Parnell's main claim to fame is his association with the formerly universally popular Governor, and this scandal may sink him. From Kos:  

Parnell has tied his entire campaign thus far to Sarah Palin, using her popularity to boost his efforts. Today, word is that Parnell has pulled all ads with references to Palin. Her brand is mud.

Yet without her, Parnell isn't shit either. He's dead in the water. (Don) Young will win his primary in several weeks, and prove easy pickings for the Democratic nominee.

Meanwhile, Palin was considered the fallback candidate in case Stevens got indicted. She no longer looks so hot. Nor can she be an asset for Stevens, Young, or any other Republican up and down the ballot in her state. Alaska's most popular Republican has essentially been neutralized. The "popular Republican" is now extinct in Alaska.

This could indeed kill Parnell's campaign, or seriously damage it. Parnell was Palin's golden boy; Palin's good name is his good name.

ID-01: Bill "Absolute Idiot" Sali has screwed up yet again. This time, he is one full week late in filing his FEC reports. His campaign claims technical difficulties:

I am unable to file the 2nd quarter 2008 FEC report, as FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the Sali for Congress data file.  I first attempted to upload a file to the FEC site on June 6. I again tried on June 9, using the new FEC software update, without success. I then sent FEC technical support a copy of the Sali for Congress FEC file. FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the file so that it may be uploaded. I am in regular contact with FEC technical support and the FEC analyst, in an effort to resolve this matter.

Thing is, that was a full week ago. The response from Democrat Walt Minnick's campaign:

"Frankly it is outrageous that he has not filed this report, the people of Idaho deserve to know who his campaign contributors are. And for him to think that he can get away from not filing his federally mandated financial disclosure to the American people and Idahoan is really outrageous," said Foster.

AZ-03: The Arizona Democratic Party has a new ad opposing John Shadegg, on behalf of Orange to Blue candidate Bob Lord:

TX-10: Democratic candidate (and Netroots Nation attendee) Larry Joe Doherty now sports the endorsements of the NEA, the Texas State Teachers' Association, and the national and state branches of the American Federation of Teachers. From a press release:

With membership of more than 4.6 million educators nationwide, these four front-line organizations represent the teachers who are working hard in our classrooms everyday. In fact, in 2007, McCaul received an 'F' rating from the NEA due to his lack of support for 'quality public education.'

"Larry Joe Doherty will take the fight to Washington on behalf of our educators, students and schools," said Louis Malfaro, President of Education Austin.  "We are proud to support a candidate who understands that a strong commitment to our public education system is the key to long-term economic health for Texas kids, families, and businesses."

Doherty is committed to working with these organizations to fix No Child Left Behind (NCLB). Republican incumbent Michael McCaul has voted to strip $806 billion in vital funding from the program (HR 3010, 6/24/05, Vote #321).

"I will be a dependable voice for our nation's teachers and students instead of a rubber stamp for a party whose policies are out of touch with the American people," said Doherty.

LA-07: Democratic candidate Don Cravins, Jr., was just added to the DCCC's Emerging Races list:

"In the short time that Don Cravins has been in the race, he's put together a solid campaign and shown that he is committed to making things easier for middle class families in Southwest Louisiana," said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen.

Cravins is the 21st candidate named to the DCCC's Emerging Races program. In each of these races, Democratic candidates have generated excitement in their districts for their campaigns for change.  As these campaigns continue to develop and demonstrate increasing strength, candidates will have an opportunity to qualify for the DCCC's Red to Blue program.  

SD-AL: Congratulations to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and former Rep. Max Sandlin, who are expecting their first child together in December.

On the web:

Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

I've been reading and hearing a lot of bemoaning of Al Franken's senate candidacy lately, but according to the latest Rasmussen poll of the Minnesota Senate Race, Franken leads Coleman 49-46% when leaners are included. Without leaners it is Coleman by 1 point, 44-43%

Here's a key point from the write-up:

Franken’s support has stayed between 43% and 45% in five straight polls. Coleman’s support had been in the 46% to 50% range for five straight polls conducted from February through June. However, his support has been lower in a pair of July polls.

There is no need to write-off or even fret about this senate race--it is competitive, with Franken having a solid chance of winning. It will be close and down to the wire, but as the democratic candidate in the contest Franken is in a good position.

In response to NathanRudy's diary, Totally Selfish Request: No Mitt Romney!!!!! I just have to say...

sigh I need a drink.  There are more and more rumors of Mitt being named Veep for McCain and this disturbs me, and not just because he tied his dog to the roof of his car.  This changes a lot of races in my area.

I am FAR more selfish then NathanRudy in proclaiming "NO MITT ROMNEY!!!!"

I am a little late to the game with posting this, but I wanted to make sure everyone caught Jim Slattery's new ad that he went up with today called "Apollo."

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

A few weeks back, Marjorie Childress had a great article about net neutrality over at the Independent (the other place I write and actually get paid for).

Something interesting that I remember this weekend was seeing which candidates were the most net-friendly.  I don't mean just showing up and glad-handing at Netroots Nation or sending staff, but also understanding net neutrality.

And the divide between Democrats and Republicans was as clear as the digital divide between the middle-class urbans and lower-class rural New Mexicans.

The New Mexico Independent was curious about what those who are running for federal office in New Mexico think about the issue. As it turned out, Democratic contenders were all informed on the topic and knew where they stood. Conversely, none of the Republicans running for Congress responded to the inquiry. They either declined to comment because of the complexity of the issue or declined all comment. First Congressional District candidate Darren White refused to respond despite several requests.

Greetings Daily Kos! This past weekend I had a chance to meet with many of you in Austin, Texas at Netroots Nation. It was my first time at the convention and I’m sure glad I went. I believe that the netroots is a crucial component in electing progressive Democrats and changing Washington.

AK-Sen: Here's a terrific poll. Maybe it is an outlier, but it's notable anyway.

Rasmussen. 7/17. MoE 4.5%. (6/26 numbers in parentheses)

Begich has 63% favorables, an eye-popping number. If that's accurate, and he can maintain it, he's in great shape.

He also has a new ad up:

CO-Sen: CQ Politics is not digging the electoral prospects of Bob Schaffer.

CQ Politics is changing its rating of the high-profile Colorado Senate race to reflect a slight edge for Udall, who is facing Republican former Rep. Bob Schaffer.

By shifting the rating of the Colorado Senate race to "Leans Democratic" from "No Clear Favorite," CQ Politics now considers Udall as a narrow front-runner in a highly competitive race that had been previously classified as a toss-up. Udall, who represents the Boulder area, and Schaffer, who represented Colorado’s eastern plains from 1997 through 2002 and sought Colorado’s other Senate seat in 2004, are unopposed in their party’s primaries on August 12.

They're a bit late to the "Lean Dem" party, but all is one.

KS-Sen: Jim Slattery is on the air, and he's hitting hard.

KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell is running an ad which blames gas-tax increases, and consequently his opponent Bruce Lunsford, for the high price of gasoline. Fortunately, Mitchie gets his just desert from the press:

McConnell's commercial is essentially dishonest.

But that's not the worst of it.

He's confusing an already perplexing picture at a time when the country desperately needs to hear the truth. We need campaigns that illuminate the nation's challenges, and energy is at the top of that list. Until we understand where we are and how we got here, we can't build a more secure future.

Hear, hear.

McConnell's misleading ad isn't unexpected. Manipulation has long been his strong suit, and the senior senator must be very pleased with the way his ad uses Lunsford's own words against him.

But this dishonesty from McConnell is disappointing all the same. It's a discredit to his lofty position and an insult to the people who have kept him in Washington for 24 years.

Savage.

House Races

NE-02: Who does Lee Terry have managing his campaign?

David Boomer, of whom it was written at My Left Nutmeg in 2006:

Nancy Johnson's campaign manager David Boomer strikes me as about as low a form of amoebic slime as one finds in politics. Boomer has led a dirty campaign against Chris Murphy and now, as Murphy's challenge is conceded by the NRCC as likely to unseat Johnson in a wave, Boomer reaches deep into the barrel of Republican smears like those used against Harold Ford and Mike Arcuri, and accused Murphy of buddying up with drug dealers.

Fortunately, Boomer's underhanded tactics backfired badly in 2006, as Chris Murphy won election by 12 points. We'll see if he's as low this time out, as Terry faces the race of his life against Democrat Jim Esch.

AL-03: Sen. Russ Feingold is holding a fundraiser for Democratic candidate Josh Segall.  

The low-dollar event — it costs just $25 to get in — takes place from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. at Union Pub, on the Senate side.

Segall has been highly touted by Democratic House leaders but faces an uphill climb both politically and on the financial front. Through June 30, he had $411,000 in his campaign account while Rogers banked more than $1.1 million.

Incumbent Republican Mike Rogers has other friends to help him:

Meanwhile, Vice President Cheney is coming to Alabama to help Rogers — and every other Republican on the Magnolia State ballot this November.

Feingold versus Cheney. Let the games begin!

CA-11: In a truly weak year for Republican recruiting, the GOP is now getting punked even by their good recruits.

One of the most highly touted GOP House recruits is turning out to be one of the party’s weakest fundraisers, a development that has national Republicans wondering whether a prime opportunity to pick off a vulnerable Democratic freshman is slipping away.

Former GOP California state Assemblyman Dean Andal raised only $190,500 in the most recent fundraising period, marking the fourth straight quarter he has raised less than $200,000 in his race against Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.).

Andal ended June with $663,000 in his campaign account, a respectable total but well short of the money necessary to fully advertise in the expensive Sacramento and San Francisco media markets. With the National Republican Congressional Committee facing an expansive field of races and limited resources, there may not be enough national money to help him make up the difference.

As for Congressman McNerney himself? $416K last quarter, $1.3 million on hand, $2.1 million raised in toto.

KY-03: Rep. John Yarmuth has a solid lead, albeit not as strong a lead as SUSA had previously shown. Their latest, with June numbers in parentheses:

Yarmuth is still over 50%, which is great, especially considering that Northup, the district's former Rep and a former gubernatorial candidate, hardly lacks for name rec.

Last friday, my Senator in the South Carolina State Senate, Kevin Bryant (R-Anderson) posted a ridiculous picture to his campaign blog.  He's getting a lot of media play out of it, mostly negative.

It got picked up by The Hill, Wonkette, and The Huffington Post and made it's way all the way up to MSNBC yesterday.  The local NBC & CBS affiliates are going to have stories on tonight's news.

Yesterday we found out that the NRSC raised just a hair over $6 million for the month of June, even after claiming they'd raised $13.5 million at the committee's big annual fundraiser with Bush.

I mean, they made a real big deal about it:

NRSC Raises $13.5 Million For The President's Dinner

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

NRSC Press Office

Largest amount in five years

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- This afternoon the National Republican Senatorial Committee announced it raised $13.5 million dollars for tonight's "The 2008 President's Dinner." The $13.5 million is the largest amount raised by the NRSC in five years.

The joint fundraising event for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and President George W. Bush's final "The President's Dinner" raised $21.5 million dollars total.

"I am very proud of the hard work that has been put in to this dinner to make it such a success," NRSC Chairman Sen. John Ensign said. "In addition to our team, Sen. Orrin Hatch has been a dedicated and diligent Chairman of the Dinner for us and I am grateful for his work."

"I believe voters will continue to react to this overreaching liberal Congress by donating money to help us stop it," Ensign added.

"The $13.5 million we raised for the dinner shows people understand that Democrats are going to do more than just increase the price of gas," Sen. Orrin Hatch, the NRSC Chairman for the President's Dinner said.

"Republican Senators, and especially John Ensign, should be congratulated for reaching out to donors and raising this money that will have a big impact this November," Hatch added.

Assuming the NRSC didn't raise another dime the entire month, who will ask Republicans what happened to the other $7.5 million the supposedly raised at Bush's dinner?

Were they trying to protect Bush, since clearly his fundraising mojo wasn't as strong as advertised? Where they gunning for cheap and easy headlines? Are they math illiterate? Do they have a new embezzling finance director?

That's a whopper of a lie. Why did they deliver it?

Georgia's U.S. Senate race disappeared from the national radar for a long period of time, as the DSCC seemed to have had a rare recruiting failure in the state.

Saxby Chambliss, last seen trashing American hero Max Cleland in the most shameless and vile manner, has enjoyed a healthy polling lead for the majority of the campaign.

His lead isn't so safe anymore.

Democrats Vernon Jones and Jim Martin head to a runoff election after completing a five-way primary race in which Jones led with 40% and Martin finished second with 34%. Here are the polling numbers for Martin and Jones against the incumbent:

Rasmussen. 7/17. MoE 4.5%. (6/26 numbers in parentheses)

Those numbers leave little room for interpretation. This is a long-shot race with Jim Martin.

It isn't any kind of race at all with Vernon Jones.

Martin is not only the only viable option in the August 5 runoff, he is the more progressive option as well (which, to be fair, is not difficult against a man like Vernon Jones, who proudly voted twice for George W. Bush). This is leaving aside Jones' personal foibles, which include two accusations of physical confrontations with women, and one of rape.

Here is the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's endorsement of Jim Martin in the Senate primary:

Fortunately, Martin offers an attractive alternative. A Vietnam veteran, he has earned deep bipartisan respect through his service in the state Legislature and as commissioner of the state Department of Human Resources under Gov. Roy Barnes, a Democrat, and Gov. Sonny Perdue, a Republican.

Martin also stresses the importance of being an independent voice for Georgia in the Senate regardless of who is elected president, drawing a contrast to the blind allegiance he claims Chambliss has given to Bush. His nomination would bring credit both to his party and to his state.

So given that this is a race, albeit still a very difficult one, with Martin in it, what are his chances at winning the runoff?

The third-place candidate in the race was journalist Dale Cardwell, who received 16% of the vote in the primary. He has endorsed Martin.

The fourth-place finisher, ecologist Rand Knight, received 5% of the vote, but accumulated a large number of union endorsements. Knight, too, has endorsed Martin. The fifth and final candidate, Josh Lanier, will not endorse.

Martin finished six points behind Jones in the primary. Given that, and the endorsements of Cardwell and Knight, there's good reason for optimism for fans of Jim Martin.

On the other hand, Jones enjoys solid support from the African-American community in Georgia (he is African-American himself). Obviously, that makes up a very large, and very critical, voting bloc within the Georgia Democratic Party. And while Jones is undeniably controversial, he is by all accounts a talented politician and an aggressive campaigner.

It's difficult to see who the nominee will be, at this point. It's far less difficult to see who it should be.

Race tracker wiki: GA-Sen