As Barack Obama's international tour is proving a spectacular success, the campaign at home is keeping focused on building its ground operations.  And growing them, including in the Mother of All Swing States, Ohio.  Ohio is up for grabs, as polls this week show anything from a six-point McCain lead to an eight-point Obama lead.  As Kos said yesterday, "this one is pretty much tied."

Ohio is always important, and this year it is no less so.  If Barack Obama can win Ohio, he is almost certain to win the presidency.  (Nate Silver estimates that McCain has a 9% chance of winning the election if he loses Ohio...and conversely that Obama has only a 6% chance of winning the election if he loses Ohio.)  Tight polls in a must-win state mean we need to work even harder as failure is not an option.  Here's what we can do.

Summer.  The dog days in American politics.  Congress is out of session, people are supposedly on vacation and not paying attention to politics.  Running mates are yet to be picked, conventions are still weeks away, and with them the start of the fall campaign.  Polls are commissioned, with plenty of analysis of what they might mean for an election three months away.

But now, right now, is when events are unfolding that will determine whether we have Democrats in charge of the White House, House of Representatives, and Senate.  These events are not the Obama World Tour, but rather the grunt work people like you and I do in our communities.  Work that doesn't get mentioned in the Situation Room or on the McLaughlin Group.

Except now, what we do is getting noticed.  Because this work is being done on a massive scale, and if we keep engaged, we have the chance to make history this Labor Day Weekend.

The media narrative over the past seven years has been one of "divided Democrats" fighting each other while a unified Republican Party consolidates power.  Even the 2006 elections that brought both houses of Congress under Democratic control raised questions about whether progressives and blue dogs could coexist and form a working majority.

The primary season was no different.  As John McCain wrapped up his party's nomination in February, the Democralypse of the Clinton-Obama battle fed the media narrative that the Democratic Party was tearing itself apart.

Yet as I read the morning news, I notice a change.  It may be sutble, but perhaps the narrative is shifting.  More below the fold.

Democrats should not count on Florida.  Democrats should not count on Florida.  Democrats should not count on Florida.  Democrats should not count on Florida.

Too much heartache is associated with counting on Florida.  This diary does not advocate that the Democratic Party count on winning any elections in Florida this fall, be they for president, congress, or dogcatcher.  That said, there is reason to believe Florida may be the site of happier news for Democrats this year.

If Democrats were concerned that the nominee would be slow to respond to Republican attacks, there is good news to report from Ohio.  The Obama campaign has joined the Republican attacks in Ohio on two fronts: the air and the ground.  Below the fold, specifics about both moves.  (You may already be aware of the air campaign, but I write this diary because it is not the only move the campaign is making in Ohio to call the McCain campaign on its negative, false campaigning.)

Do you live in or near Ohio?  Are you interested in making sure this Midwestern swing state gets colored blue in all of the network maps on November 4?  The Obama campaign has announced its latest action in its effort to make Ohio more Democratic at the presidential level.  This action may also make Ohio more Democratic in the House delegation as well as for other races downticket.  If you are interested in helping this effort, read below the fold for details.

As June ends, it is clear in a number of ways that Barack Obama represents the center of the Democratic Party.  This is true in ways we may desire (the fundraising model of the campaign is now that of the DNC) and in ways we may not desire (the candidate's recent policy statements on FISA and gun control appear to run counter to earlier statements that won him support from many people).

Taken as a whole, though, I argue that we can take comfort in the fact that Obama now represents the center of the party, and that this move has the potential of making the party -- and its leader -- more progressive.  I'll explain why after the jump.

Frank Rich's column this week takes on John McCain adviser Charlie Black's comments that a terrorist attack would be a "big advantage" for the Republican candidate's campaign.  While much has been said about how Black's comments mirror ones McCain made last year (even though McCain repudiated Black's statement this week), Rich goes further to show how the McCain campaign's dependence on the fear of a terrorist attack is a structural part of the Republican campaign.  In this sense, Rich argues, McCain is relying (like all Republicans this century) upon the ideas and tactics of Karl Rove.

As George W. Bush enters the final months of his presidency, thoughts naturally turn to his place in history.  Ronald W. Reagan and George H. W. Bush had airports in Washington and Houston named after them.  Today comes word that San Francisco may honor George W. Bush by putting his name on a vital public institution.  So San Franciscans can remember him whenever they use this service.
A petition has circulated for the past several months to rename the Oceanside Water Pollution Control Plant the George W Bush Sewage Plant.

No, this diary is not a look at the writings of A. Whitney Brown, splendid though they may be.  It is instead a look at a writer who has contributed political analysis to the web, yet may not be widely read in the blogosphere.

I write this diary because said writer is a particularly gifted social scientist who has demonstrated the ability to see the big picture over months, decades, and centuries, a skill that has value in a medium that often lives from news cycle to news cycle.  He is providing analysis of the current election season that is worth a read to understand what the nation, Barack Obama, and John McCain face in the months ahead.

Below the fold, join me for a look at what Immanuel Wallerstein has to say about the upcoming election.

On the same day that David Plouffe explains that the Obama campaign is not counting on winning Florida in order to win the presidency, the Obama campaign also announced a move in its effort to win the sunshine state.  The new state director in Florida is Steve Schale, who bragged, "When you see us reach our full staff level, you're going to see an operation the size of which this state has never seen before on our side...I would not take this job if I did not think Sen. Obama was committed to winning this state or didn't think he could win this state."

Who is Steve Schale?  Read below for details.

Of all the great things I saw over the past several days, my single favorite moment was the scene in the Chicago office where Barack Obama greeted the volunteers.  At the end of a hard-fought primary season, he could have said "yay! We did it" before sending them on vacation.  Instead he said that because "we won, we now have no choice. We have to win."  Too many people need a Democratic president for this campaign to fail.  If the Democratic nominee doesn't win, then the economy will not improve, the war will not end, all of the problems we face will not be addressed.  Too many people are now counting on the campaign for the campaign to relax.  It is now time to work even harder between now and November.

Happily, the campaign is backing up Obama's words.  Below the fold, some details on what is being done now and what needs to be done now to ensure a happy outcome in November.

Maybe he's too old, too infirm, or simply lacks the mental capabilities we need in a commander in chief, but John McCain is simply not a strong enough man to be president.  How do we know this?  He told us so.

Despite signals that the electorate was poised to "throw the bums out" in the fall of 2006, many prognosticators thought the Democrats' chances of taking majorities in both the House and Senate were slim.  Yet that is what happened, led by such unlikely expulsions from Congress as Sen. George Allen of Virginia and Rep. Jim Leach of Iowa.

We may see a second consecutive Democratic congressional landslide this November.  While historically unlikely, the electorate's distaste for Republicans has not gone away.  This time, the prognosticators think the current mood will yet again lead to dramatic Democratic gains.

Now that Barack Obama has become the leader of the Democratic Party, he is moving to take control of the DNC and manage the general campaign against John McCain.  Chatter naturally turns to who he will pick as his running mate, with a lot of oxygen spent this week over the possibility of Hillary Clinton joining the ticket.

Events this week signaled that a presidential candidate may be Obama's choice, but not Hillary Clinton.  Below the fold, some reasons why Obama might pick Chris Dodd to succeed Dick Cheney.

South Dakota and Montana have not yet had their votes tallied, but the Obama campaign is already laying the groundwork for the fall campaign.  Today the media will focus on Barack Obama's event at the site of the Republican National Convention, and on the superdelegate endorsements of the day.  Good news, welcome news, but other, lower-profile organizing is happening today that may have a larger effect on November's results...and on the party for years to come.

The Obama Organizing Fellows program (described by Steven R in an April diary) is gearing up, and you can help even if you are not a Fellow.  Read below the fold to learn how you can sign up to host a Fellow this summer.

Ohio Governor Ted Strickland said, in a February ad for Hillary Clinton, that "We need a president who first of all is going to be a fighter."  Now that the primaries are coming to an end and it is apparent that Barack Obama is the party's nominee, many concerned Democrats may wonder -- will we have a leader who will fight the Republican Party, someone who will fix the damage -- the economic thefts, the ecological plunderings, the criminal abuses of government, the bloodthirsty foreign adventures -- that has been done not only in the past seven years, not only in the past thirteen years, but over the past forty years of conservative dismantling of government for the people?

This diary goes to great (meaning long, long) lengths to say yes.  Barack Obama, a man who has already led the fight for voting rights, will fight not just the nominee but the basic philosophy of the Republican Party to make the United States a more just, more perfect union.  See, for example, his attack on Republican values delivered in 2006, or read a few of the many examples below the fold.

As I write this, Democrats are about 63 hours from concluding our primary season.  The end is near.  Barack Obama is the presumptive winner of the Democratic nomination for president, and this was never more evident than the remark he gave in South Dakota last night after the rules committee made its decision on seating the Florida and Michigan delegations to the convention.

"I think that Senator Clinton and former President Clinton love this country. They love the Democratic Party. I think they deeply believe that Democrats need to win in November. And so I trust that they’re going to do the right thing."

A friendly but firm invitation into the fold for the last challenger yet to concede.  A sign of how the Obama campaign does business.  And a sign that the Democratic Party has coalesced behind Obama and pressure now mounts on the Clintons to do the same.